Many real-world complex systems are characterized by interactions in groups that change in time. Current temporal network approaches, however, are unable to describe group dynamics, as they are based on pairwise interactions only. Here, we use time-varying hypergraphs to describe such systems, and we introduce a framework based on higher-order correlations to characterize their temporal organization. We analyze various social systems, finding that groups of different sizes have typical patterns of long-range temporal correlations. Moreover, our method reveals the presence of non-trivial temporal interdependencies between different group sizes. We introduce a model of temporal hypergraphs with non-Markovian group interactions, which reveals complex memory as a fundamental mechanism underlying the pattern in the data.

Compartmental models are widely adopted to describe and predict the spreading of infectious diseases. The unknown parameters of these models need to be estimated from the data. Furthermore, when some of the model variables are not empirically accessible, as in the case of asymptomatic carriers of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), they have to be obtained as an outcome of the model. Here, we introduce a framework to quantify how the uncertainty in the data affects the determination of the parameters and the evolution of the unmeasured variables of a given model. We illustrate how the method is able to characterize different regimes of identifiability, even in models with few compartments. Last, we discuss how the lack of identifiability in a realistic model for COVID-19 may prevent reliable predictions of the epidemic dynamics.

Various systems in physics, biology, social sciences and engineering have been successfully modeled as networks of coupled dynamical systems, where the links describe pairwise interactions. This is, however, too strong a limitation, as recent studies have revealed that higher-order many-body interactions are present in social groups, ecosystems and in the human brain, and they actually affect the emergent dynamics of all these systems. Here, we introduce a general framework to study coupled dynamical systems accounting for the precise microscopic structure of their interactions at any possible order. We show that complete synchronization exists as an invariant solution, and give the necessary condition for it to be observed as a stable state. Moreover, in some relevant instances, such a necessary condition takes the form of a Master Stability Function. This generalizes the existing results valid for pairwise interactions to the case of complex systems with the most general possible architecture.